Article abstract

Journal of Agricultural and Crop Research

Research Article | Published December 2017 | Volume 5, Issue 6, pp. 96-107


Evaluating the CERES-Rice model under dry season irrigated rice in Bangladesh: Calibration and validation




M Maniruzzaman*

JC Biswas

MB Hosain

MM Haque

UA Naher

A Biswas

AK Choudhury

S Akhter

F Ahmed

MM Rahman

N Kalra


Email Author


     Irrigation and Water Management Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.


Citation: Maniruzzaman M, Biswas JC, Hossain MB, Haque MM, Naher UA, Biswas A, Choudhury AK, Akhter S, Ahmed F, Rahman MM, Kalra N (2017). Evaluating the CERES-Rice model under dry season irrigated rice in Bangladesh: Calibration and validation. J. Agric. Crop Res. 5(6): 96-107.



Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-Rice (CERES-Rice) model was calibrated and validated for major rice varieties suitable for growing in the dry season. Yield performances for BRRI dhan28, BRRI dhan29 and BRRI dhan58 were tested at Gazipur, Rangpur, Rajshahi, Barisal, Comilla and Habiganj districts of Bangladesh under recommended agronomic management practices, respectively. Nitrogen rates (0, 40, 80, 120, 160 and 200 kg ha-1) and varying sowing date experiments were conducted at Gazipur (latitude: 23° 45' N, longitude: 90° 22' E, elevation: 8.4 m amsl) during 2012/2013 and 2013/2014. Seeding interval was 15 days starting from 15 October in 2012 and was extended up to 30 January in 2013. The genetic coefficients were developed based on data from multi-locations yield trials and date of sowing and fertilizer management trials at Gazipur. The model performance was evaluated using prediction error (Pe), coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root means squared error (NRSME) and Willmott’s index of agreement (d). The model calibration yielded 0.81<R2<0.99, 0.81<NRMSE<10.74, and 0.81<d<0.97 in simulating grain yields, biomass and growth durations, respectively. The model validation yielded 0.60<R2<0.95, 1.72<NRMSE<5.99, and 0.86<d<0.98 in simulating grain yields, biomass and growth durations. During calibration, the prediction errors for average grain yield, biomass and growth duration varied from 3.46 to 4.80%, 10.20 to 15.39% and 0.92 to 2.25%, respectively indicating satisfying model performances. The changes in simulated results compared to observe values varied from -1.82 to 9.12% for grain yield, 5.38% to 18.82% for biomass production and -4.67 to 4.87% for growth duration depending on tested varieties. Thus, CERES-Rice model is ready for its use in climate change impacts and variabilities on rice production.

Keywords  CERES-Rice model   calibration   validation   model application   yield   Bangladesh  






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